The Legal Impacts of COVID-19 in the Travel, Tourism and Hospitality Industry

friendlier models. Even leasing firms, which have plenty of capital and could repurchase planes from straitened airlines and then lease them back, could be hurt if widespread insolvencies flood the market with second-hand aircraft, depressing leasing rates. Perhaps the most significant uncertainty concerns shifting attitudes to business and leisure travel. If corporations detect that they can operate with fewer executives flitting around the globe, and holidaymakers get a taste for “staycations” or trains, compounded by “flight shame” over aeroplanes’ carbon emissions, the industry may struggle to keep doubling passenger volumes every 15 years, as it has done for the past three decades. The coronavirus is already proving to be quite the braking parachute. It may arrest momentum more dramatically still. 2. What Effect Does the Coronavirus Pandemic Have on African Aviation? The global aviation industry worldwide is sagging under the weight of the current coronavirus pandemic, and Africa is no exception. With strong links to China, both for tourism and trade, African airlines are somewhat more exposed to the current disruption than people might realise. 2.1. Disruption in African Aviation Back at the start of March, the New York Times reported that disruption from coronavirus could cost African airlines some 40 million dollars in revenue. That was based on an estimated issued by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) which, at the end of February, had estimated losses to be in the region of 29 billion dollars, globally. Given the continuous spread of the virus, and with the impacts being felt more widely, IATA has recently revised its figures, showing, the most recent estimation, potential revenue losses of some 113 billion worldwide due to COVID-19. Based on the impacts SARS had on aviation, IATA now predicts Africa will lose 0.4% of its revenue passenger kilometres (RPK) if the disease is contained within the most affected nations. If the disease is more widespread, however, the effect could be worst, although IATA did not put a monetary value on the losses. Regardless of the statistics, there is a big reason that African aviation will suffer greatly from the coronavirus, and that is its connections with China. 2.2. Why Will African Aviation Suffer?